Pandemic Facts
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What Is a Pandemic?
- A pandemic is a worldwide epidemic of a disease. A disease epidemic occurs when there are unusually high number of cases of that disease.
- An influenza pandemic may occur when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population has no immunity. The virus begins to cause serious illness and spreads easily from person to person.
- Pandemics can be either mild or severe in terms of the number of illnesses and deaths they cause, and the severity of a pandemic can change over the course of that pandemic.
- An influenza pandemic may come and go in waves of activity, each of which can last for 6 to 12 weeks.
- The World Health Organization uses a system of six phases of pandemic alert to inform the world of the seriousness of a pandemic threat and the need for preparedness activities.
- On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert level to Phase 6, indicating that a pandemic of influenza A(H1N1) was underway. A pandemic reflects the spread of the new virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. For an explanation and an update on pandemic alert phases, go to www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html
What Are the Different Types of Flu?
- Influenza A (H1N1) (also known as H1N1 flu) is a new influenza virus causing illness in humans and spreading from person to person, in much the same way as seasonal influenza.
- Swine flu is a respiratory disease caused by type A influenza viruses that causes regular outbreaks in pigs. Although people normally are not infected by such diseases, human infections have been known to occur.
- Bird flu (avian influenza, AI) is caused by influenza viruses that naturally occur among birds. Wild birds carry the viruses but do not usually get sick from them; however, AI is very contagious among birds and can kill or sicken some domestic birds. Avian flu viruses are characterized as being either low pathogenic (LPAI) – usually associated with mild disease in poultry – or highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses, such as H5N1 – those associated with severe illness and a rapid death. In general, the risk of transmission from birds to humans is low, and has resulted from direct contact with an infected bird. Humans cannot get bird flu from properly handled and cooked poultry or eggs. Symptoms in humans depend on which virus caused the infection, and range from flu-like aches to severe life-threatening complications.
- Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI): A classification of the Avian Flu virus, usually associated with mild disease in poultry.
- Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI): A classification of the Avian Flu virus, usually associated with severe illness and a rapid death.
- Pandemic flu is human flu that causes a global outbreak of illness. Because there is little natural immunity, the disease can be serious and spread easily from person to person.
- Seasonal (or common) flu is a viral respiratory illness that can be transmitted from person to person. There are vaccines available, and most people have some immunity.
What Are the Possible Consequences?
- A severe influenza pandemic could disrupt everyday life because so many people in so many places become seriously ill at the same time.
- Impacts can range from school closings to interruptions of basic services, such as public transportation and food delivery. Due to illness, there may be significant shortages of personnel available to provide these services.
- A significant percentage of the world’s population will require some form of medical care. Healthcare facilities may be overwhelmed with demands to care for both influenza and non-influenza patients, creating a shortage of hospital staff, beds, ventilators, and other supplies.
- The need for vaccine is likely to outstrip supply, and the supply of antiviral drugs is also likely to be inadequate early in a pandemic. Difficult decisions will need to be made regarding who gets antiviral drugs and vaccines.
- Current epidemiological models project that a pandemic could result in 2 to 7.4 million deaths globally. (Death rates are determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the extent to which preventive measures are implemented.)
Effects of Globalization on a Pandemic
With the increase in global travel, as well as urbanization and overcrowded conditions in some parts of the world, epidemics due to a new influenza virus are more likely to take hold around the world, and become a pandemic faster than before.
Nonetheless, scientific research and the history of past pandemics indicate that restricting travel would be of limited or no benefit in stopping the spread of disease, as the virus can be transmitted from person to person before the onset of symptoms.
What Can Be Done to Prepare for a Pandemic?
- The World Health Organization has defined the phases of a pandemic to provide a global framework to aid countries in preparedness and response planning.
- On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Phase was raised to level 6, indicating widespread human infection. Specifically, phase 6 means that a newly identified influenza virus has caused sustained community level outbreaks in two or more countries in one World Health Organization region plus in at least one other country in another World Health Organization region. For additional information or an update on pandemic phase alerts, go to http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html
- Contingency planning for an event that will occur at an undetermined time in the future is difficult, particularly in the face of limited resources and other urgent problems and priorities, especially in developing countries. However, there are two main reasons to invest in pandemic preparedness: 1. Improving public health infrastructure through pandemic planning has immediate and lasting benefits, increasing overall response capacity for all threats to public health. 2. Strengthening coordination mechanisms at the national and international levels contributes to better global preparedness and response for disasters and public health emergencies.
- The World Health Organization has developed a global influenza preparedness plan that outlines the responsibilities of World Health Organization and national authorities in the event of an influenza pandemic. The World Health Organization also offers guidance tools and training to assist in the development of national pandemic preparedness plans.
- Effective pandemic preparedness around the world is essential to mitigate the effects of a pandemic, particularly if it becomes severe. Furthermore, the effects of a pandemic can be lessened if preparations are made ahead of time.
- Countries and the World Health Organization have been working to strengthen systems to detect outbreaks of influenza that might cause a pandemic.
- Continuous surveillance and rapid detection of unusual influenza outbreaks, isolation of viruses with pandemic potential, and immediate alerts to World Health Organization by national authorities are critical to a timely and efficient response. The World Health Organization has a network of more than 120 National Influenza Centers in over 90 countries that monitor influenza activity and isolate influenza viruses in every region of the world.
- International and national organizations and agencies around the world are preparing and providing advice and other support to localities to assist with pandemic planning.
What Can You Do to Protect Yourself and Others?
- Flu vaccines are the best ways of protecting people in an influenza epidemic or pandemic. However, pandemic influenza vaccines will possibly be available months after a pandemic has been declared, and are expected to be a limited supply at first. Other measures – including personal hygiene and social distancing – should be used.
- There are everyday actions that people can take to stay healthy such as: covering your cough or sneeze, washing hands frequently, avoiding contact with sick people, staying home if you are sick, follow public health advice, and staying informed, among others.
- There are several ways that individuals, families, businesses, schools, and other organizations can prepare for a flu pandemic. You can find information on how to plan at www.who.int, www.pandemicflu.gov or through your country’s ministry of health.
- If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and of shorter duration. They may also prevent serious influenza complications.
- People who are ill should delay travel plans. Returning travelers who become ill should contact their healthcare provider.
- Travelers can protect themselves and others by following simple prevention practices that apply while traveling and in daily life.
Common-sense precautions to take every day, not just when a flu outbreak occurs:
- Always cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you sneeze or cough, and dispose of the tissue in the trash immediately.
- Wash your hands, thoroughly and often, with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective germ killers.
- To help prevent spreading germs, avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.
Specific guidance on the H1N1 flu, also known as the swine flu.
- If you are feeling sick, do not go to work or other public places, and do not put yourself into situations where you might expose others to your illness.
- If you have a fever (temperature of 100.4°F (38°C) or higher) AND an upper respiratory symptom (e.g. sore throat, cough, runny nose, or nasal congestion) in the absence of a known cause, you should contact your healthcare provider. If you have severe illness or are at high risk for flu complications seek urgent medical care. Emergency warning signs include breathing problems, severe or persistent vomiting, or symptoms that improve but return with a fever and worse cough. In children emergency signs may also include fever with a rash, blue/gray skin color, not drinking fluids, and severe irritability; and in adults chest pain, dizziness, and confusion.
*Sources: WHO, www.pandemicflu.gov, PAHO